Inflammatory Index as a Predictor of Mortality in Elderly Patients With Intracapsular Femoral Neck Fracture

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Celiksoz A., KAVAK M., Tarlacik A. O.

CUREUS JOURNAL OF MEDICAL SCIENCE, no.10, 2023 (ESCI) identifier identifier


A femoral neck fracture is a major cause of mortality in the elderly population, and intracapsular femoral neck fractures (ICFNFs) are commonly treated with hemiarthroplasty. The 30-day mortality rate for elderly hip fracture patients ranges from 1.0% to 6.5%, and one-year mortality increases significantly to 37.3%. Identifying predictors of mortality in these patients is crucial for better management. Inflammatory indices, such as neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), and monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), have gained popularity for assessing mortality risk in various diseases. Several studies have demonstrated the value of these indices in predicting mortality after hip fracture. The pan-inflammatory immune value (PIV), which combines hematological parameters, has been shown to predict mortality in cancer patients. However, its role in predicting mortality in ICFNF patients treated with hemiarthroplasty has yet to be explored. This study aimed to assess the association of PIV, SII, NLR, and MLR with 30-day and one-year mortality in ICFNF patients. We also investigated the impact of surgical delay time (<= 24h, 24-48h, >= 48h) on these inflammatory indices and mortality. Data from 522 patients with ICFNF treated with hemiarthroplasty were retrospectively collected. We observed 30-day and one-year mortality rates of 5.24% and 21.2%, respectively. Age, gender, and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score were identified as significant predictors of mortality. Preoperative PIV, SII, NLR, and MLR were significant predictors in the evaluation of early mortality. However, postoperatively, only NLR on the third day (NLR3rd) demonstrated statistical significance. Stepwise logistic regression further confirmed NLR3rd as the most effective predictor for early mortality. For mortality occurring between 30 to 365 days, NLR3rd remained statistically significant, albeit with diminished sensitivity. No other inflammatory index demonstrated significant predictive power for mortality during this later period. Our findings suggest different inflammatory indices may have varying predictive abilities depending on the mortality period. We recommend considering NLR3rd as a valuable and reliable predictor for early mortality in ICFNF patients treated with hemiarthroplasty. Respiratory system disease and preoperative chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were identified as risk factors for mortality in our study, in line with previous research. In conclusion, our study highlights the potential of specific inflammatory indexes, particularly NLR3rd, in predicting mortality in elderly patients with ICFNFs treated with hemiarthroplasty. Further research is needed to validate these findings and optimize risk assessment in orthopedic practice.