Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, cilt.27, sa.1, ss.940-957, 2026 (TRDizin)
This study investigates how Türkiye’s transportation diplomacy has structurally transformed its foreign trade performance since 2018. Focusing on strategic initiatives, such as the Middle Corridor, the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway, and the Türkiye Logistics Master Plan, this study empirically explores the role of institutional transportation reforms and transport-related service structures in shaping export and import dynamics. Using annual data covering 1990–2023, two ARDL models were estimated to analyze short- and long-run trade determinants, incorporating foreign direct investment, inflation, unemployment, income growth, and transportation service indicators. The results revealed a stable long-run equilibrium relationship in both export and import models. Foreign direct investment had a statistically significant positive effect on exports and imports in both the short and long run, highlighting the import-intensive and investment-driven structure of Türkiye’s production system. Income growth negatively affects exports in the long run, indicating that economic expansion had been predominantly driven by domestic demand rather than export-oriented production. Although transportation service ratios are not statistically significant in the long run, the post-2018 structural reform dummy variable is positive and highly significant in both models, providing strong evidence that corridor-based institutional transportation reforms have structurally strengthened Türkiye’s foreign trade performance. The findings contribute to the literature by providing quantitative evidence on the trade effects of transportation diplomacy and logistics-led institutional reforms and by presenting policy-relevant insights for designing infrastructure- and corridor-oriented foreign trade strategies.