A Pooled Mean Group Examination of the Marshall-Lerner Condition in Central Asia’s Trade Dynamics
International Trade Journal, 2026 (ESCI, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1080/08853908.2026.2713084
- Dergi Adı: International Trade Journal
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Scopus, Periodicals Index Online, ABI/INFORM, EconLit, Business Source Ultimate (EBSCO)
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Central Asia, exchange rate, Marshall-Lerner condition, PMG, trade balance
- Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
While exchange rate adjustments are considered a corrective tool for trade imbalances, their effectiveness depends on import and export elasticities. This study investigates the Marshall-Lerner condition in Central Asian countries by applying the pooled mean group (PMG) method within a panel ARDL framework, using a more refined measure of foreign income. The findings indicate that the Marshall-Lerner condition generally holds in the long run. However, restoring trade balance for countries where export and import volumes rise following a currency depreciation or devaluation may not suffice, largely due to their heavy dependence on imported goods.