As one of the most promising energy storage mediums, Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) have attracted extensive research interest. A major challenge associated with LIB application is thermal runaway, which can be triggered under abused conditions and impose direct threats to life and properties. Thermal runaway is a major source of fire and explosions in the battery energy storage industry. In this paper, the thermal runaway numerical model is used to explain the evolution of thermal runaway trigger point over different cathodic chemistry under the influence of varying ambient temperature. The test is performed using nail penetration assisted thermal abuse method. The model is based on the conservation of energy Equation, with the empirical corelation of the thermal abuse equations which is used to simulate the source term. Additionally, experimental literature is used to verify the simulation results extensively. The simulation results are utilized to monitor internal short circuit circumstances that lead to the thermal runaway trigger point, and a comparison scaled map is created between various chemistry to show which chemistry triggers prematurely between LiNiMnCoO2 (NMC), LiFePO4 (LFP), and LiCoO2 (LCO). The existing critical uncertainty, such as nail diameter, heating profile, variation in operating ambient temperature, battery jelly roll thickness and effect of convective parameters is investigated in detailed and decision tree is prepared using ANOVA statistical method.